甘南黄河水源补给区畜牧业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应分析

Driving factors and decoupling effects of animal husbandry carbon emissions in the Yellow River water supply area of Gannan

  • 摘要: 为探究“双碳”目标下畜牧业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应, 采用LMDI模型分解碳排放的驱动因素, 借助Tapio脱钩模型解析各驱动因素与畜牧业碳排放之间的脱钩关系, 并检验其脱钩努力。结果表明: 1) 2000—2022年, 甘南黄河水源补给区畜牧业碳排放量为50.926万~118.736万t, 年均增长率为1.72%。玛曲县、夏河县、碌曲县等纯牧业县畜牧业碳排放量占主要地位。2)经济发展和人口规模是畜牧业碳排放增加的重要推力, 并以“U”型趋势演变; 畜牧业强度、产业结构与城镇化是畜牧业低碳化发展主要因素。3)畜牧业生产强度、城镇化因素有利于碳排放脱钩, 经济发展、人口增长因素则主要表现出碳排放脱钩的抑制效应, 大部分年限畜牧业生产结构因素表现出对碳排放脱钩的促进作用。4)考察期内, 畜牧业产业结构以及畜牧业生产强度对应的分脱钩努力指数大部分时期为正, 说明二者目前是补给区畜牧业碳排放“脱钩”与否的关键因素。最后, 建议从高碳生产方式转变、产业结构优化、低碳畜牧业生产技术创新等方面鼓励传统畜牧业的低碳绿色转型, 助力补给区畜牧业的生态合理化发展。

     

    Abstract: In order to determine the driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon emissions from the livestock industry under the goal of “double carbon,” we used the LMDI model to decompose the driving factors, and the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the decoupling between the driving factors and carbon emissions from the livestock industry to assess the decoupling efforts. The results revealed that from 2000 to 2020, carbon emissions from animal husbandry in the Yellow River water recharge area of Gannan ranged from 50.926×104 to 118.736×104 t, with an average annual growth rate of 1.72%. In the counties of Maqu, Xiahe, and Luqu, and other purely pastoral counties, emissions from livestock account for the majority of carbon emissions. In addition, in terms of economic development, population size was identified as an important driving force for the increase in carbon emissions from animal husbandry, whereas the evolution of a “U” trend; intensity of animal husbandry, industrial structure, and urbanization are considered the main factors contributing to the development of low-carbon animal husbandry. Furthermore, the intensity of animal husbandry production and urbanization factors were identified as being conducive to carbon decoupling, whereas economic development and population growth factors mainly have the inhibitory effect of carbon decoupling, and in most years, factors associated with livestock production structure were found to have a promotional effect on carbon decoupling. During a majority of the investigation period, we found that sub-decoupling effort indices corresponding to the industrial structure of the livestock industry and the intensity of the livestock industry were positive, indicating that these are the main factors contributing to “decoupling” of the carbon emissions of the livestock industry in the recharge zone. On the basis of these findings, with respect to promoting the ecologically rational development of the animal husbandry industry in the recharge zone, we recommend encouraging the low-carbon green transformation of traditional animal husbandry in terms of the transformation of the high-carbon production mode, optimization of the industrial structure, and technological innovation of low-carbon livestock production.

     

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