基于三阶段DEA的农业能源效率计算方法改进

Improvement of agricultural energy efficiency calculation method based on three-stage DEA

  • 摘要: 精准测算是提高农业能源效率的基础, 有助于识别能源使用的瓶颈和潜力, 优化农业能源结构, 突破能源与环境双重约束, 有力有效地推进乡村全面振兴。概念辨析发现, 传统的农业能源效率测算结果实质是包含能源的农业生产效率。为科学合理地测算农业能源效率, 本文提出了一种基于三阶段数据包络分析(DEA)模型的改进计算方法, 并以中国30个省(直辖市、自治区)的面板数据为样本进行测算, 对比原有方法的分析结果以检验方法的可靠性。结果表明: 1)随机前沿(SFA)分析可知, 环境变量和随机因素对能源效率影响显著, 说明该方法能够剔除生产因素对农业能源效率的影响, 从而规避部分测算结果高于实际值的问题; 2)与传统方法对比, 改进方法的估算结果与中国农业经济发展趋势更贴切, 波动节点与相应政策出台时间更契合; 3)传统方法的估算结果会受物价和成本的影响, 与真实农业能源效率产生较大偏离, 其中北京、天津、上海和青海最为明显。综上所述, 改进的三阶段DEA农业能源效率测算方法明显优于传统方法, 可为企业及政府在农业节能减排方面提供更加准确的决策依据。

     

    Abstract: Energy is the basis for the development of modern society, it is also an important guarantee for rural life and agricultural production. With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in China, the demand for efficient energy in agricultural modernization will inevitably increase. In the face of increasingly severe global issues, such as resources, environment and food security etc., accurate measurement is the basis for improving agricultural energy efficiency. It will facilitate identifying the bottlenecks and potential in energy usage, optimizing the agricultural energy structure, breaking through the dual constraints of energy and the environment, which in turn, will effectively promote rural comprehensive revitalization. The concept exploration revealed that there is a conceptual intersection between the conventional agricultural energy efficiency and agricultural production efficiency, the calculation output of conventional agricultural energy efficiency is actually the agricultural production efficiency including energy. In order to calculate agricultural energy efficiency scientifically and logically, this paper proposes an improved algorithm with referencing to three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. On the basis of the conventional one-stage calculation method, this algorithm also applies the second-stage stochastic frontier approach (SFA) and the third-stage DEA analysis. Panel data of thirty provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in China were taken as the sample to test the updated algorithm. The analysis results were compared to that of the conventional method to test the model reliability. The results showed that: 1) Outputs from the second-stage SFA analysis showed that the LR values of all input slack variables were greater than 10.501, passing the significance test of 1% LR. The impact of environmental variables and random factors on energy efficiency was significant. This indicated that SFA analysis was necessary and effective, can eliminate the impact of production factors on agricultural energy efficiency, which avoided the problem that some of the calculated results were higher than the observed values. 2) Compared with the gap of about 0.1 derived from the conventional method of agricultural energy efficiency in the past 20 years, the final (the third stage) efficiency value from the improved model increased from 0.240 in 2003 to 0.541 in 2018, demonstrating that the estimated result was more appropriate to the development trend of China's agricultural economy. And the fluctuation node was more consistent with the time when the corresponding policies were introduced: such as the severe agriculture blow resulted from natural disasters at the end of the 20th century, the first central document on “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” issued in 2004, and the international economic and financial crisis in 2008 and other important nodes. 3) The estimates of the conventional method were greatly biased from the real agricultural energy efficiency because to the influence of prices and costs, especially in Beijing, Qinghai, Tianjin, and Shanghai, which differences between the traditional and improved models were 0.88, 0.86, 0.72, and 0.67, respectively. In summary, the improved three-stage DEA agricultural energy efficiency method was obviously superior to the conventional method, which can provide more accurate decision-making basis for enterprises and governments in the fields of agricultural energy conservation and emission reduction.

     

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