Evaluation and driving factor analysis of agricultural green and low-carbon transformation in Shandong Province

Agricultural green and low-carbon development is essential for achieving agricultural modernization and fostering high-quality economic development. Due to severe agricultural non-point source pollution, prominent quality and safety hazards of agricultural products, and increased agricultural carbon emissions, the agricultural green and low-carbon development should be promoted in Shandong Province. An evaluation index system for assessing the transformation level of agricultural green and low-carbon development in Shandong Province was constructed. The entropy weight method was used to calculate the agricultural green and low-carbon transformation level in Shandong Province from 2011 to 2021. The temporal and spatial differences of agricultural green and low-carbon transformation at overall, regional, and economic circle levels were analyzed. The natural breakpoint method was used to classify the agricultural green and low-carbon transformation levels in Shandong Province. The key driving factors influencing the agricultural green and low-carbon transformation in Shandong Province and its three major economic circles were revealed using geographic detectors. The results indicate that: 1) The overall level of agricultural green and low-carbon transformation in Shandong Province has maintained a steady growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of 2.310%. 2) The agricultural green and low-carbon transformation levels of 16 cities in Shandong Province showed an obvious increasing trend, with Qingdao and Jinan ranking at the top and Linyi, Weifang, and Weihai ranking at the bottom. 3) The agricultural green and low-carbon transformation level in the Provincial Capital Economic Circle was the highest, followed by the Lunan Economic Circle. In contrast, the level of the Jiaodong Economic Circle was relatively low. 4) The agricultural fiscal policy, agricultural technology input, and agricultural structure adjustment were key driving factors of agricultural green and low-carbon transformation in Shandong Province. The agricultural structure adjustment, urbanization level, and agricultural fiscal policy were the most critical driving factors in the Provincial Capital Economic Circle, the Jiaodong Economic Circle, and the Lunan Economic Circle, respectively. Moreover, the degree of driving effect generated by the interaction of various factors was markedly higher than that of single factors. Based on these findings, Shandong Province should leverage policy guidance to stimulate endogenous driving forces, strengthen the demonstration and driving role of leading entities, and explore green and low-carbon innovation paths tailored to local conditions.