Impact of weather on vegetable price resilience— A case study of the local cucumber in Shijiazhuang City

Controlling fluctuation of vegetables prices, which influences many aspects of economy and society, have been one of focuses of social attention. To clarify the effect of weather factors on vegetables price volatility and resilience, with the local cucumber of Shijiazhuang City as an example, the paper used monthly time-series data of precipitation, temperature and sunshine hours of Shijiazhuang from October 2011 to May 2014, and confirmed that cucumber price volatility could be caused by fluctuations of weather factors, such as, precipitation, temperature and sunshine hours by using Granger causality test of vector auto regression (VAR) model. On this basis, the paper constructed vegetable price resilience model, measured the interference pressure of weather factors on cucumber price and the sensitivity of cucumber price to weather factors, and calculated the cucumber price resilience under weather factors disturbance. Granger causality test results showed significant relationship of cucumber price volatility with precipitation and temperature at < 5% probability and with sunshine hours at < 10% probability. The sensitivity coefficient of cucumber price to sunshine hours change was higher than those to precipitation and temperature changes. Fluctuations of precipitation, temperature and sunshine hours affected cucumber price resilience, of which sunshine hours was most obvious. The price resilience of cucumber price under changed sunshine hours was weaker than those under changed precipitation and temperature. Considering that weather factors affected vegetable prices resilience primarily through affecting vegetables supply, the study proposed that appropriate measures enhancing the vegetable prices resilience under changed whether factors should aim at adjusting vegetable production. Specific measures included reducing impact of sunshine hours decreasing on vegetables production through combating haze, developing agricultural facilities and infrastructure to improve vegetable production resisting ability to weather changes, strengthening agricultural technology innovation to mitigate the negative impact of weather changes on vegetables production.