Design and implementation of the land ecological security warning system

Land ecological security is one of the core issues in regional ecological security. Quantitative, visual, and automatic evaluation and prediction of land ecological security status and real-time warning are of great significance for the sustainable use of land resources. Taking Hebei Province as an example, an index system of land ecological security was constructed based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) model. In addition, a projection tracking model was used to evaluate the land ecological status, a principal component correlation analysis model was used to identify the main influencing factors of land ecological security, and the spatial difference coefficient model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal pattern of land ecological security. The Markov prediction model was adopted to predict the land ecological security level, an early warning mechanism was established by dividing the early warning levels of land ecological security, and the land ecological security warning system was developed by using the graphical user interface (GUI) of MATLAB. The results showed that:1) From 2010 to 2018, the land ecological security index of Hebei showed an overall increasing trend, shifting from 0.300 to 0.611, with an average annual growth rate of 12.92%. The status of the land ecological security had changed from "deteriorating grade" to "sensitive grade". The warning level had changed from "super-severe warning" to "moderate warning". However, the overall level of land ecological security was still low. 2) The main limiting factors of land ecological security were population density, industrialization rate, pesticide input per unit area of cultivated land, load of industrial wastes per unit area of land, proportion of urban construction land, proportion of industrial land, and energy consumption per 10 000 ￥ GDP. 3) The regional differences in land ecological security in different prefecture-level cities of Hebei Province had been decreasing continuously and became stable in recent years. By 2018, the coefficient of spatial difference was 32.54%, and the differences between cities still cannot be ignored. The state of land ecological security in most prefecture-level cities was at "sensitive level", and the warning level was "moderate warning". The level of land ecological security needs to be further improved. 4) From 2019 to 2025, the land ecological security index of Hebei Province is predicted to show a steady upward trend, and by 2025, it predicted to be 0.834, reaching the "less security level, " with a warning level of "slight warning." There is now greater potential for land ecology to develop in a benign direction.