Low carbon performance measurement and dynamic effects: A case study of the planting industry in Shandong Province

Increased greenhouse effects have seriously affected the survival and development of human society. Data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that agricultural greenhouse gases account for 13.5% of global anthropogenic emissions. This study investigated the planting industry in Shandong Province, China, which accounts for the highest proportion of agricultural output, to provide policy recommendations that should help the planting industry in the province follow a low-carbon development path. This study measured carbon emission, carbon sinks, carbon emission intensity, and the marginal cost of carbon emission reduction; used the DEA Malmquist model to measure the low-carbon performance level; and investigated the dynamic effects of low-carbon driving and constraint on the low-carbon performance of the planting industry in Shandong Province. The results showed that from 2000 to 2018, the carbon emission and carbon sink of planting industry in Shandong Province increased 0.26% and 1.71% averagely every year, while carbon emission intensity and marginal cost of carbon emission reduction decreased 3.12% and 2.10%, respectively. The low-carbon performance index increased slowly with an annual increasing rate of 3.00%, which mainly was driven by the efficiency of technology change. The low-carbon constraint goals and low-carbon drivers were the direct reasons of low-carbon performance change of the planting industry. The carbon emission intensity and low-carbon constraint goals had negative and passive effects on the low-carbon performance of plant industry, respectively. The low-carbon constraint goals played a more important role in the low-carbon performance of plant industry of Shandong Province. The findings of this study suggest that low-carbon development can be achieved by formulating low-carbon laws and regulations and improving the effectiveness of financial support.