Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and convergence of the carbon compensation rate of planting industry in China

Global warming is an increasingly serious problem. Carbon emissions from agriculture had hindered its transition to green agriculture, and carbon emissions from the planting industry cannot be ignored. Reducing the regional differences and clarifying dynamic evolution and convergence of the carbon compensation rates in the planting industry are conducive to the benign development of low-carbon agriculture. At present, few studies consider both agricultural carbon sources and carbon sinks, and an in-depth analysis of the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry is lacking. Existing studies on the agricultural carbon compensation rate focus only on the spatial effect of agricultural carbon but do not effectively analyze the sources and convergence of regional differences in the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry. Therefore, this study considered both the carbon sources and the carbon sinks and estimated the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry in 31 Chinese provinces (municipalities and autonomous districts) from 2002 to 2018. The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method was used to measure and decompose the regional differences, the dynamic evolution process of kernel density with non-parametric estimation was investigated, and the σ-convergence, absolute β-convergence, and conditional β-convergence models were used to test the convergence characteristics of the carbon compensation rate. The results were as follows: (1) The overall relative difference in the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry tended to expand. The relative differences in the eastern region expanded, while the relative differences in the central and western regions showed only little change. The relative differences between the eastern and western regions and the eastern and central regions increased, whereas that between the central and western regions decreased. The regional differences were the main reasons for the differences in the carbon compensation rates of the planting industry. (2) The carbon compensation rate of the planting industry in China increased annually, and the number of provinces with high carbon compensation rates increased. The provincial difference in carbon compensation rate first decreased and then increased. The carbon compensation rate in the eastern provinces increased gradually, and the inter-provincial absolute gap decreased, changing from polarization to unipolarization. The carbon compensation rate in the central provinces increased gradually, and the absolute gap decreased. The carbon compensation rate in the western provinces was relatively stable and showed little change. (3) There was no σ-convergence in the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry in the whole country and the eastern and western regions, but it was not obviously observed in the central region. The absolute and conditional β-convergences were significant in the whole country and the eastern, central, and western regions. The results of this study emphasize that regional heterogeneity in the carbon compensation rate of China’s planting industry is prominent and that the temporal trend of carbon compensation rate is generally increasing. The “catch-up effect” among provinces and the convergence trend of the carbon compensation rate growth among regions are apparent. In the future, it will be important to improve the carbon compensation rate of the planting industry to better formulate a green development strategy for regional agriculture and actively reduce regional emissions.