Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades

As the main indicator for global change, ongoing climate warming has had significant impact on human life, including agricultural production for human consumption. Crop phonology and yield response to climate change has been critical in the study of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. This study used data from four typical agro-meteorological experiment stations in the North China Plain (NCP) to study the sensitivity of the response of winter wheat phenology and yield to climate change in the last three decades. The data included detailed observation dates of winter wheat phenology and yield in the NCP study area for the period of 1980 2009. The experiment stations are located in Tangshan of Hebei Province, Huimin of Shandong Province, Shangqiu and Zhumadian of Henan Province. The results showed that while sowing date of winter wheat delayed, heading and maturity dates advanced in the last three decades. The advance or delay of winter wheat phenology induced corresponding changes in the durations of the different growth stages of the crop. The duration from emergence to heading, which was a sensitive vegetative growth stage (VGP), shortened in all the four investigated stations. By contrast, the duration from heading to maturity, which was a critical reproductive growth stage (RGP), prolonged in all the stations. Correlation analysis showed that temperature and radiation were the main climatic factors controlling winter wheat cultivation in the study area. However, winter wheat yield response to meteorological factors differed with different growth stages. With the exception of Zhumadian Station, the temperature increase positively influenced winter wheat yield for the growth stage period from emergence to heading. However, temperature rise negatively influenced winter wheat yield for the growth stage period from heading to maturity. Winter wheat yield was positively correlated with radiation, implying that the decline in radiation in the study area in the last three decades had a negative effect on winter wheat production. Our findings suggested that the sensitivity of the response of winter wheat growth and yield to climate change in the NCP was increasing. The response mechanisms of crop growth and productivity to climate change needed appropriate consideration in order to improve the prediction of the impacts of climate change and to develop requisite adaptation measures to enhance future crop productivity.