Study on prediction models of beginning period of Empoasca vitis activity peak

Based on establishing the combinative prediction models AR (P)of the linear regression and time series，a method for prediction of beginning period of activity peak of Empoasca vitis next year，by using observed values of climatic factions in last year，was proposed．Therefore one can advance the announcement date of pest disaster explosion．The prediction practices in Fu’an tea field，Fujian Province，indicate that this combinative prediction method is a feasible mean ．