Correlation analysis of cultivated land change and economic development in Huzhou City

Based on the 50-year statistical data(1949～1998) on Huzhou City,the change processes and the regional differences of cultivated lands were analyzed and the relationship between cultivated land change and economic development quantified.Lost cultivated lands to different economic developments were estimated.The results show an initial increase in cultivated land area in Huzhou followed by a steady decline with economic development,leading to three loss peaks in cultivated lands.Per capita cultivated area gradually decreases from 1949 to 1998.The cultivated areas show an exponential decreasing trend with increasing per capita GDP.The exponential function was then used to estimate cultivated land areas under different GDP levels.The estimated cultivated areas are 191.41km², 81.18km², 12.24km², 0.77km²,and 0.01 km² for 10 billion RMB GDP increase at per capita GDPs of 500～1000yuan,1000～5000yuan,5000～10000yuan,10000～20000yuan and 20000～30000yuan RMB,respectively.It is shown that cultivated land areas are steadily declining and the economic development model is shifting from extensive to intensive with economic development.